COVID-19 | Prof. Stefano De Leo

Analysing and coparing the COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe, the USA,
and South America [July, 10]

TDpM [Total Deaths per Million], TD [Total Deaths],
TCCpM [Total Confirmed Cases per Million], TCC [Total Confirmed Cases],
TpCC [Tests per Confirmed Cases], P [M] [Population in Millions],
PpK2 [Population per Km^2], ICBpM [Intensitive Care Beds per Million].

The TCCpM and TDpM curves

The alpha and beta factors

The alpha factor represents the weekly spreading rate of DCCpM (Daily Confirmed Cases per Million) when the countries reached a same number of TCCpM. The beta factor referes to DDpM (Daily Deaths per Million)

Dynamical forecasts for the Brazilian (DCCpM and DDpM) peaks

When the curves cross the line, we are reaching the stabilisation (day 140: June, 9)

Skew-normal distributions for the DCCpM and DDpM curves

Skew-normal predictions for for the DCCpM and DDpM curves